@ScottAdamsSays The IPCC recently erased this page:
https://web.archive.org/web/20181103051332/https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm …
It stated clearly:
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible"
IPCC doesn't want us to know this.
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@nntaleb suggests that we should avoid mistakes that might kill us. Whether all the models or none of the models predict disaster, who disagrees that more natural, clean, and efficient solutions aren't preferable, all things being equal? A lot of us just don't like being lied to. -
That's a bad argument unless you only have one risk that can kill you or you have unlimited resources. If you have multiple extinction risks (which we do) and limited resources (as we do), you have to allocate resources across risks.
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This is a good publication on climate models. https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf …
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Great knowledge here! Thanks gents!
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Issue is what models get wide public view. Lets discuss models and genesis.
IPCC models are based on economic models that use faulty methodology (MER vs accepted PPP). In these, North Korea and similar basket cases will have a GDP 2x that of US in 2100.
These are base models. -
All subsequent models use these faulty initial economic models.
Most use RCP 8.5 (worst case emissions and forcing models). This is a likely IMPOSSIBLE scenario, as it assumes using several multiples of current coal reserves, at low prices, with little tech innovation. - Show replies
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