@ScottAdamsSays The IPCC recently erased this page:
https://web.archive.org/web/20181103051332/https://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg1/501.htm …
It stated clearly:
"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible"
IPCC doesn't want us to know this.
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Every model presupposes that CO2 increases will necessarily lead to temperature increases, which is by no means certain, in my opinion.
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You're right Med.
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Assuming data is collected properly (i'm not convinced), it may show warming, but it is not understood why there is warming. The aforementioned statement subtilty makes that suggestion.
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4-12-19 Should be
#ScienceDay A day where people reflect on the necessity that established models have often been wrong Galileo was ordered to turn himself in to the Holy Office to begin trial for holding the belief that the Earth revolves around the Sunhttps://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/galileo-is-convicted-of-heresy …Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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I agree that predictions that far out can’t be precise, but I don’t think MOST KNOW this.Only thinking people think this or there wouldn’t be such catastrophic apocalyptic alarmism.
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Russia!
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The point is, we can't "know" it for sure. As in "impossible" due to that pesky thing called chaos. Have you read "Chaos" by Gleick? Only the solar cycles offer some predictability in the short term. The Grand Solar Minimum hypothesis is gaining ground.
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It's more than chaos. If a model is tuned so that CO2 accounts for all the historical warming that is left over from everything else that was modeled and there are any unmodeled phenomenon (eg natural climate cycles), the models will always predict too much warming as CO2 rises.
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Thoughts? One of the more innovative recent initiatives in academic publishing is the Journal of Controversial Ideas. https://www.chronicle.com/article/Here-Comes-The-Journal-of/245068 …
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Sounds like it will attract kooks. Tough business model.
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