Can someone smart tell me why this opinion on climate models is wrong? Are Climate Models Overpredicting Global Warming? https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/are-climate-models-overpredicting-global-warming … via @CatoInstitute
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Quick thoughts (haven't researched) – the idea that some model predicted the pause better and is therefore better overall is extremely doubtful. The weather-related influences like ENSO that dominate short-term (annual scale) variations are not reliably predicted by any method.
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In other words, doing better on short-term pause more likely random. They say thru 2014? Did it predict the warm jump 2016 onward? Prob no. Truth is *individual runs* of many models predicted pause, here's one from a Japan model run prior to 2007 (from http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/12/the-global-temperature-jigsaw/ …)pic.twitter.com/UdJAhJQqUz
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