Can someone smart tell me why this opinion on climate models is wrong? Are Climate Models Overpredicting Global Warming? https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/are-climate-models-overpredicting-global-warming … via @CatoInstitute
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Give me money and conclusion, I can make a model fit it.
End of conversation
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When I worked in the engineering field, I heard this saying. Modeling is like masturbation. If you depend on it too much, you'll confuse it for the real thing. Not sure it's an exact fit, but it's still an amusing quip.
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Not sure it's an exact fit, but it's still an amusing grip
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It's more than that. Non linearity doesn't just make it harder to make accurate projections, it makes it literally, mathematically impossible. Read James Gleick's book Chaos, the Making of a New Science. After that, you'll stop posting about the persuasion angle of arguments.
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Hi Scott, I’m sure you mean “predictions”. While “catastrophe” and “crisis” are not exact, they are pretty clear. As for the minutiae of computer models, even if one input variable is wrong, the output will be wrong. I did early computer models on an IBM as big as an SUV.
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And errors will amplify in time and spread out horizontally as well as vertically.
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This goes beyond precise projections. Experienced scientists know that extrapolation can yield wildly wrong predictions. Yet now politicians are sacrificing their country's future on bad science.
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But they are treated as exact despite the weaknesses pointed out.That seems to be the problem.
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Plus it recommends the exact opposite approach.
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