No I'm not checkmated. Bleaching is an adaptive response to any form of environmental stress. It is explicitly the expelling of current algal organisms and the subsequent reabsorption of more heat tolerant strains and has been occurring for centuries.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00283/full …
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Replying to @ratman720 @geoffmprice and
A quote from the paper above: "... but reconstructed increases in bleaching frequency and prevalence, may suggest coral populations are reaching an upper bleaching threshold, a “tipping point” beyond which coral survival is uncertain."
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Replying to @JSegor @ratman720 and
Read paper again. Yes, bleaching has occurred for centuries, that is not the issue here. Extinctions have occurred for thousands of years. The point here is that the "prevalence & frequency indicate that we may be coming to a tipping point beyond which survival in uncertain."
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Replying to @JSegor @ratman720 and
This is a recurring theme in AGW. It is not the warming itself - it is the rate at which the warming is occurring which is stressing many diverse ecosystems to the point of failure to adapt. Hence all the research on making corals more resistant to heat. Good try, but no cookie.
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Replying to @JSegor @ratman720 and
Except for all the data given here (and elsewhere) has not precluded an equivalent warming/cooling rate in the past 10k years. The error bars I have seen are not precise enough to exclude rapid climate changes on par with what is being predicted in modern AGW charts.
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Replying to @luvkit @ratman720 and
I think the aim is to avoid catastrophic events like 2016-2017 regardless if they happened thousands of years ago or not. Since the recovery time is longer (depending on the damage) than most peoples' lives. I don't get the point here.
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Coral is struggling with just 0.9 C increase from 1880. Marine biologists are worried that if we reach 2.0 C or greater which we are heading for, the damage could be a tipping point event where the reef is no longer at its current grandeur. The chain reaction could be bad.
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It may be true, that the surviving species of coral may be as wonderful as it has been in the past. Can't rule that out. But not very likely with 2 C or greater by 2100. Evolution is surprising, though. And coral have amazing properties, but it may need a lot of help from us
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Regardless what we do now (probably too late), marine biologists will have to breed new forms of coral in the lab and seed them out there. It may be that the supercoral may have amazing adaptive/acclimatizing genes. That is my hope.
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Replying to @JSegor @ratman720 and
I wouldn't count out nature just yet. We've only been monitoring bleaching events for what, 40 years with any accuracy? Something tells me a genus that survived for 100s of millions of years, and species we know have lived through the past 10k years, is not about to go extinct.
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How does a history of slow temperature change predict what happens with rapid temperature change?
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Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @luvkit and
There is no rapid temperature change
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