"The whole thing is still somewhat of a scientific mystery. "
P.S. our models were wrong
@ScottAdamsSays https://twitter.com/NEWS_MAKER/status/1085923080055140352 …
-
-
Prediction models are astrology until you can prove they are valid.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
That´s why Paul Krugman has recently gone from: "economy will break down, if the President attacs China" to "the long term damage of the trade war with China will be devastating". For some convincing, for no one ever provable.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
In other words, we don’t know shit about how Nature does its thing, we’re just guessing.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Amen (and lol).
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Or they get closer to the truth as you add in more real-world data. Science is analog -- the model isn't just right or wrong, it has some distance from what really happened. More data makes better models. This is basic machine learning.
-
Yes, but this isn’t the point. The statistical model makes a prediction about something. That prediction is either useful or not really. Adding more data means a new model. New predictions.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
My inner chicken little is screaming “the poles are shifting the poles are shifting!” Magnetic pole shifts happen on the sun every 11 years but only happen on earth like once every several thousand to several hundred thousand of years. My inner tardo “see! There’s a chance!”
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Prediction models, especially in complex systems, improve over time based on additional observations and data. Test, identify weaknesses, gather more data, refine model, repeat. That's science, and it's carried our species a long way from the cave.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Fact check Al Gores book.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Are you using the same models for your climate change predictions
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.