Scott Adams goes to the whiteboard to discuss border persuasion, with coffee.https://www.pscp.tv/w/bwdVyzExODgwMjU5fDFsRHhMTVZ3TVpxS23tWN3ekw1gpk-vA6GNslo2PK-XoQe_Lcku4C5q6H_FLw== …
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I think the answer is you use the proxies that are available to you on land and in the ocean. They are trying to get the best coverage they can over the entire earth. In some areas, tree-rings may be the best guy in town. And if they match the instrumental pre-1960, use them.
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If the tree-ring data do not match the instrumental, then either there is a problem with the instrumental or there is some other factor in the tree-rings that needs to be investigated. Apparently, air pollution post-1960 had some influence on the growth.
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The concept here is called Consilience of Evidence. Trying to find as many indicators that match up. If they don't, you investigate why, and there may be issues with that particular indicator in that particular area at that particular time.
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It's fine as long as you're able to acknowledge when proxies don't work. There is no magical reason for them to exist. There are cognitive science reasons for researchers to convince themselves they work, though. Fortunately, they have us to keep them in check ;-)
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If the average global temperature were really flat or declining, most of these diverse indicators would show that together. They are showing the opposite. But you are not going to get perfect indicators. And some indicators are limited geographically.
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Scott, this is one of the best websites that show the major indicators. They are all moving in the same direction and many don't use models, just observation:https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/catalog …
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Let's test it. Arctic. Yup, they hide pre 1978. Next!pic.twitter.com/7XLlJUw7FG
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I don't think anyone said that tree rings are the main evidence. I could be wrong. You don't have tree-rings in the oceans and that constitutes most of the surface area and heat capacity. You use Deep Sea Coring, etc.
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They were for a while. They were what supported the infamous HS curve. The science of it has been so widly critize (just about every aspect of Mann's article was junk science apparently, outrageous cherry picking, faulty methodology on several level...). In the next 20 many...
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