No. @ScottAdamsSays makes the same mistake as Pinker. The 'world' is more at risk than ever before...even if only due to systemic/cascading effects #pseudostabilityhttps://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1078328558269825024 …
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Informal Analogies? Let's keep focus. Connectivity increases both potential benefits and harms. There's a left tail to the distribution.
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You're view is similar to 1/ the 'Great Moderation'; the belief that markets were stable/less volatile - that came crashing down in 2008. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Moderation … 2/ the point is that *should* a war happen, the dynamics of interconnectedness make it potentially more devastating
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I think you’re both making two congruent arguments. It is possible that things are more stable via increased connection , but should things advance to a state of war, that very stability could cause a cascading effect, “stabalizing” the chaos as the new normal.
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A phase transition needs evidence of decreased *potential* for harm
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“The first great globalization wave, in the half-century or so before WWI, sparked a populist backlash too, and ultimately came crashing down in the cataclysms of 1914 to 1945,” says Feinman... https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/why-the-world-looks-a-bit-like-it-did-before-world-war-i …
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you seem to believe we've gone past a tipping point - how do you know we're connected enough to avoid greater risks? Not sure anybody knows that.
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