No. @ScottAdamsSays makes the same mistake as Pinker. The 'world' is more at risk than ever before...even if only due to systemic/cascading effects #pseudostabilityhttps://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1078328558269825024 …
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The statistical methods used to provide data in support of the long peace story are not suited for the phenomenon of human warfare. We cannot say whether there is more or less peace. Only that the current lull is nothing out of the ordinary.
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There is also reason for pessimism if focused on vulnerability. Disaster damages scale up with connectivity, even if outpaced by gdp. But would you make the same statement for war? More possible victims even if outpaced by population growth? Noah effects are real.
End of conversation
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Or: There is no epistemic reason to be optimistic.
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