Watch climate alarmists defend the accuracy of climate models with a coin-flip analogy. THAT'S the best defense?????? @CNNhttps://www.cnn.com/videos/weather/2018/12/10/climate-change-myths-explainer-wx-ncc-orig-llr.cnn …
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Sort of. Climate predictions are more accurate than weather predictions for the same reason predicting the % of coin flips over a long time is more likely to be right than individual coin flips. The breakdown of the analogy is "knowing" the coin is fair.
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If you model a coin as fair, then your prediciton will probably match reality. If it's a loaded coin, then no. Multiply the variables and complexity for the model by a million. That's modeling climate vs. modeling a coin.
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I have to disagree, the coin flip is just one example the law of large numbers in probability(math), it also applies to climate models and statistics in general, that's why sample size in statistics is important, you can't make a meaningful medical study with 3 people.
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same goes for climate, you can't make a study of the climate judging by 3 days, you have to have a large sample size and look at the big picture. so just by having record low temperatures in winter it doesn't necessarily mean that the models are wrong.
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Next summer in NYC will be warmer on average than next winter. That's the averaging they are talking. The coin flip analogy was used correctly and rationally, BUT it may not be the best visual image for persuasion!
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It's about the worst.
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