Status quo! 2 more years of stagnation, I see stocks going down big time!
https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1060162716533370880 …
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yup...hard for politicos to change rules on them...stasis allows normalcy in the marketplace.
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Scott, at a previous job, we studied elections around the world. Succinctly, stocks underperform in the six months prior to an election, then rally in the subsequent 6 mos. The key factor is that the event uncertainty passes, not the particular winner. Markets abhor uncertainty.
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One interesting outlier in developing countries was that if an unpopular/underperforming government “lost” to the opposition, market returns were outsized once the election date was passed.
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And right on cue, world markets are up following the election results. The markets view this outcome as favorable and have been pricing it in for months. Any deterioration we see from these levels, as in the past weeks, more likely related to fundamentals.
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Just to poscript this tweet: US Markets registered their votes today - huge day on NASDAQ and NYSE, up 2% and likely we will see follow through in Asia and Europe tomorrow.
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And we already had gridlock.
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I sure hope you are right!
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