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ScottAdamsSays's profile
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
Scott Adams
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@ScottAdamsSays

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Scott AdamsVerified account

@ScottAdamsSays

My Micro Lesson (2-4 min. videos) on being more happier and more effective in life are on Locals: http://bit.ly/2Ygv2tf 

Pleasanton CA
youtube.com/c/realCoffeeWi…
Joined October 2014

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    1. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Perhaps. But wonder if that's coming from a lack of mileage. A lot of bubbles and notions have burst over the years. They're usually characterised by undying support, even as the probability mounts, all the way to the *pop* Be it tulips, bhagwans, GFCs, Ponzis or Madoffs...

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Shi Yan Hui - Priest Master Of Wudan Monastery‏ @Iggy_Semmelweis 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Exactly! The day before the election Huffington Post had Hillary with a 98% chance of winning the Presidency. Undying support ~and then comes the *POP* It. Never. Gets. Old. 🤣🤣🤣https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDNXAlklkPk …

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Once again, mileage? Eg. folks who bet on Madoff's 72 consecutive accretive quarters learned: 1) Past returns are not a proxy for future returns 2) Total returns should be viewed alongside Composition of returns IOW, basing mid-terms on 2016 might prove to be analysis-lite 🙂

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Shi Yan Hui - Priest Master Of Wudan Monastery‏ @Iggy_Semmelweis 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Go ahead and make your prediction, then. Don't be coy. As of this moment, @ScottAdamsSays and I predict that the Republicans will do much better than expected in these coming mid-terms elections. The Red Tide rises. Of course, things could change and our prediction, too.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Given that various GOP folks are suggesting they could lose the House, 'better than expected' is probably a low bar 🙂 I'm not coy, nor am I a pollster - I just try to assess probabilities. Eg. here's the prof punters 'current' take - Dems taking the Housepic.twitter.com/MZ18DhGUFg

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis and

      At the same time, those same punters see GOP holding the Senatepic.twitter.com/W36nygBSpw

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis and

      Of course, these punters may not be right (or unbiased). But at least they're putting their money where their mouth is. That at least 'helps' my assessment of probability. In that, cf to partisans, they've a stronger incentive to be independent & unbiased.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Shi Yan Hui - Priest Master Of Wudan Monastery‏ @Iggy_Semmelweis 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Same punters that predicted Crooked would win. Same pollsters that predicted Crooked would win. Make your stand, make your call, otherwise it's all just gas. Reps will hold the House, Reps will hold the Senate. Mid-terms will be all about jobs, jobs, jobs, economy, economy.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf @ScottAdamsSays

      Ah, so if the market is wrong once, it will always be wrong 🙂 Stand, call & gas - line from a movie? ie. my logic & current probabilities are mapped out. Jobs & economy, maybe. Trump got lucky with trend like Clinton in '90s. Still, haven't seen the GOP this -ve for a while 🤨

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis and

      Btw, when I'm talking about luck with trend, perhaps I could best explain that to you via the chart of unemployment below. Any chance you'd know what the trend line looks like under the Obama part, and under the Trump taxes & tariffs economic miracle part?pic.twitter.com/AnG36oBWGS

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 27 Aug 2018
      Replying to @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf

      The first part of the trend is the easy part (coming off a low base) and the last part is the hard part, when you are approaching full employment t.

      2:55 PM - 27 Aug 2018
      • 2 Likes
      • Ed Worrum Kevin Bogan 🇺🇸
      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Howard Torf‏ @HowardTorf 27 Aug 2018
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis

          Complete nonsense. It wasn't easy to come out of the worst recession since the Depression. Under Obama unemployment halved from 9% down to 4.7%. The stock market tripled. Interest rates, inflation, gas prices bottomed (all rising now). Car sales hit records.

          2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Scott Adams‏Verified account @ScottAdamsSays 27 Aug 2018
          Replying to @HowardTorf @EWorrum @Iggy_Semmelweis

          And I have always given President Obama full credit for a solid job on the economy. So you need to take me out of this fake debate.

          2 replies 1 retweet 7 likes
        4. Show replies
        1. Ed Worrum‏ @EWorrum 27 Aug 2018
          Replying to @ScottAdamsSays @Iggy_Semmelweis @HowardTorf

          Yup, agreed. Corresponds perfectly with the slightly slowing, but still declining, rate.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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