I rarely talk Trump. I never know when he’s actually crazy or crazy like a fox. I’ve called him an existential risk. I thought that was clear enough. He’s an existential risk who, ex-post, might do some good, but at unacceptably high ex-ante risk. I can’t believe we’re here. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1021234525626609666 …
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You guys should livestream
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1/I agree with notamouse. Eric is saying what if 99% of the times Trump sends that tweet it will ultimately improve relations with Iran, but 1% of times it'll be the end of the world?
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He's asking how you can be sure when Trump is so unpredictable.
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The whole point it that is controlled and calculated unpredictability.
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In my opinion both countries are short vol. Iran is probably less robust though. Iran gamma > USA gamma. They lack printing press to worlds reserve currency and a far larger network of allies/trading partners.
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I don’t think SA wants to be part of the IDW so he won’t engage as well as he should.
End of conversation
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