Holger ZschaepitzVerified account

@Schuldensuehner

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addictiveness to debt. Pics:

Berlin, Germany
Joined May 2009

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  1. Pinned Tweet

    Hey guys, in our podcast DuZ we discuss whether one-time tech darling Facebook, fallen out of TRILLION-DOLLAR CLUB & now worth just $600bn, is now MEGA opportunity or META disaster. And we argue whether Swiss Franc will rise to Euro parity. MUST HEAR!

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  2. Global stocks rebound as govt debt sell-off pauses w/European stocks & US Futures higher. 's Ibex now in green YTD. US 10y yields drop by 3bps to 1.93%, Italy's 10y drops 6bps to 1.78%. Cryptocurrencies do not benefit from Risk On move w/ $43.3k. Gold unch at $1827.

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  3. Good morning from , where exports to US have set a fresh record. In past 12mths, goods worth >€120bn were shipped overseas. This makes US most important nation for German exports, far ahead of China or France. Volume of exports to China has even fallen slightly recently.

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  4. OUCH! German power prices jump as France cuts nuclear forecast. Reactor outages have forced France to import electricity at times. Morgan Stanley sees ‘meaningful likelihood’ of 2023 output cut.

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  5. balance sheet hit fresh ATH after last week's meeting as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling regardless of rising inflation. Total assets rose by another €7.5bn to €8,630.1bn, equal to 81.8% of Eurozone GDP vs Fed's 37%, BoJ's 135%, BoE's 42%.

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  6. Bond mkt rout continues: US 10y yields on course 2%.

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  7. Good Morning from where Target2 claims drop from ATH. Target2 claims of Bundesbank on the rest of Eurosystem fall to €1.15tn, typical for Jan, meaning substantial risks for Germany. At a time when ECB slowly scaling back stimulus, these risks are coming back into focus.

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  8. Crypto bucks the tech downtrend today. jumps >$44k, ~$3150.

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  9. But here to close Italian spreads? 's Lagarde tries to soothe bond mkt investors w/dovish remarks after Italy's yield spiked. Says no need for big ECB tightening as inflation to hold at target.

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  10. Meta loses another $33bn in mkt cap as EU leaders buck at threats to shutter Facebook & Instagram. Meta threatened to pull FB & Insta from Europe if it is unable to keep transferring user data back to US, amid negotiations to replace scrapped privacy pact.

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  11. 10y risk spread over Germany jumps to 164bps, highest since 2020, as bond markets are currently being repriced after 's (verbally) hawkish pivot.

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  12. OUCH! Greek bonds are bearing the brunt of 's hawkish pivot. 's 10y yields jump by 27bps to 2.55%, the highest level since Apr 2020.

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  13. Positive again the new normal? Volume of negative-yielding debt has crashed <$5tn for the 1st time since 2015.

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  14. Good Morning from where positive yields are becoming the norm again after the recent bond meltdown. Bund yields are now positive for maturities of 5 years and above.

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  15. 100k and still running: If you want to make sense of the markets, just listen to our podcast w/hedge fund manager .

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  16. Governing Council Member Klaas Knot sees an interest-rate hike as early October. Says Eurozone likely to stay above 4% for most of 2022 and way higher than ECB predicted in Dec.

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  17. Global stocks have gained $3.1tn in mkt cap this week on the back of strong results from comps across the econ & as US Dollar weakens vs Euro (-2.7%), making equities from non-dollar area, such as Europe, more valuable. Global stocks now worth $116tn, equal to 137% of global GDP.

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  18. Good Morning back from where financial repression continues. Although nominal 10y yields have turned positive again, now at +0.2%, when you subtract the actual inflation of 4.9%, real yields are left at -4.7%. Real yields are now NEGATIVE for 69 consecutive mths..

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  19. 10y risk over Germany spread has jumped to the highest level since 2020 in recent bond selloff. 10y Austria bond yields now at 0.5% while German 10y bonds yield 0.2%.

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  20. Good Morning from , where citizens also hoard a lot of money in their accounts that is not protected from . Retail deposits have even increased more than in since 2003. Inflation in Austria has just jumped >5% & hit the highest level since 1984.

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