Holger Zschaepitz

@Schuldensuehner

Holger Zschäpitz is market maniac and Author of 'Schulden ohne Sühne?' a book on states' addictiveness to debt. Pics:

Berlin, Germany
Vrijeme pridruživanja: svibanj 2009.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    28. sij
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  2. tumbles <$50 a barrel as Virus saps Chinese demand. Chinese oil demand said to plunge 20% as outbreak worsens. Brent front month at discount for first time since July.

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  3. officials are evaluating whether the target for economic growth this year should be softened from around 6% as part of a broader review of how govt‘s plans will be affected by the deadly virus outbreak, according to people familiar with the matter.

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  4. Oops! ran world's largest current account surplus in 2019, Ifo has calculated. It is the 4th successive year that Germany’s current account surplus has been the world’s largest, w/Japan’s and 's.

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  5. DB's Reid looked at “January effect”. Using monthly data back to 1920s for S&P500, mkt had been up 58 times (63%) in Jan against 34 (37%) times down. When it’s been higher, 79% of the time FY sees gains. When it’s lower only 44% of time it ends the year in positive territory.

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  6. chief economist says inflation is destined to return to the euro zone. Says rising labor costs will eventually reignite inflation. Mkts not so sure as inflation expectations measured by 5y5y swaps show which remains stubbornly low.

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  7. The Year of the Rat has delivered a black swan to President Xi's doorstep. China’s CSI300 plunged on fears over impact of coronavirus. Plunge, reminiscent of 2015’s brutal crash which wiped around $5tn off Chinese bourses, could prove hard to brake.

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  8. In case you missed it: US Yield Curve, measured by 3mth/10y spread, is back in inversion. Yield Curve tends to be a good recession predictor. 3mth/10y yield spread hasn’t sent a false signal for more than 50yrs, BBG’s Authers says.

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  9. Ouch! China stocks sink 9%, most since 2015, as mkts reopen to crisis after break More than 2,600 stocks fell by daily 10% limit. Beijing vows to ensure financial stability, adequate liquidity. Mainland investors haven’t traded since markets shut Jan23.

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  10. Good morning from , which could also be hit by a Brexit. Goods worth €650mln euros could be subject to tariffs. Germany is poised to take the biggest blow w/€18.8bn of its goods potentially subject to tariffs.

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  11. Ouch! Investors betting against suffered record losses of $5.8bn in January after the stock hit a new high, marking a win for CEO Elon Musk in a long-running battle w/short-sellers.

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  12. 2. velj

    A $22bn injection into Chinese markets won’t be enough to prevent the country’s stocks and currency falling on Monday, but it may ease a global sell-off sparked by the spread of the coronavirus.

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  13. 2. velj

    Just a coincidence or causation? S&P500 has ended Jan 0.2% lower while balance sheet has shrunk by $14bn or 0.3% in Jan.

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  14. 2. velj
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  15. 2. velj

    This chart highlights why so many hedge funds are currently failing. Since the introduced forward guidance VIX has been disconnected from policy uncertainty. (via DB)

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  16. 2. velj

    Global stock mkts lost $2.7tn in mkt cap this week (equal to GDP of India) mainly dragged by coronavirus news after outbreak continued to escalate. Economists cut China GDP forecasts. China now 17% of global GDP. Downturn in Chicago PMI & lukewarm earnings didn't help much either

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  17. 2. velj

    Central Bank to supply $174bn for Virus-Hit markets, expanding further their balance sheet. PBOC to keep money market rates stable with OMOs, other tools. China targets epidemic-hit areas with stimulus, easier rules.

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij
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  19. 2. velj

    Good Morning from Austria where Austrian Euro is 14.9% overvalued vs German Euro when measured by purchasing power parity (Price for homogeneous product Nutella), although Ferrero has recently raised prices in Ger by 5%. 750g jar costs €6.25/kg in Austria vs €5.32/kg in Germany

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  20. 1. velj

    No market has suffered more from 's viral outbreak than commodity shipping, where rates are down 99.95% this month.

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  21. 1. velj

    This chart highlights why the Coronavirus is more dangerous for the global economy than SARS. Seventeen years ago, China’s GDP was 4% of the global total—it’s now 17%.

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