Ok, first thing you need to reflect on regarding Ocasio-Cortez (henceforth O-C): what counts as 'success' for her?
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Folks don't understand why I think Ocasio-Cortez is brilliant. No respect for politics--but tactically, she is brilliant. She will be a force in American politics. But to get why there are a few things that need to be unpacked (thread coming).
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If your answer is "a socialist paradise" then you're wrong. If your answer is "real collaboration with her colleagues in the House" then you're wrong. If your answer is "House leadership positions" you're wrong. If it is "bills with her name on it" you're *wrong!*
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In the short run (say, here to 2024) she is going to focus on accomplishing only a few things. She doesn't need to focus on anything else. These include: 1) Staying in power. 2) Building a movement 3) Moving the overton window.
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Another way to say this: O-C's main goal is pretty simple: normalize socialism.
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That is going to be her driving cause. Her goal is to make ideas which were once too fringe to be uttered in American politics not just normal, but popular. A secondary aim will be building up a network of people who think like here, and getting as many into office as possible.
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This is why that stupid protest in front of Nancy Pelosi's office is brilliant. It is not going to earn her any favors with the House Democrats. The opposite, actually. But she does not need them. Her whole point is to build up a movement *capable of toppling them.*
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In essence, O-C is not trying to win at the insiders game. She is waging a battle over the bully pulpit. However inexperienced she may be in other domains, winning the bully pulpit is something she is very good at. As long as she can keep the battle there, she wins.
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There is an analogy here that is apt, but will not be popular: O-C is a younger, more articulate Trump. Trump 2016 is O-C now, but she has years and years to keep the campaign going.
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Some of you will say: "this woman is not smart enough, not clear-headed enough, not policy-informed enough, to make that sort of difference." But really.... was Trump?
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This is why O-C is going to be a force to be reckoned with. She is not a great thinker. She has not been around long enough to judge her character. But when it comes to manipulating the media and seizing the bully pulpit, she's the savviest person left of Jeff Flake.
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She is going to build her movement. She is going to be its face. Whether she will be able to use that movement to propel herself to positions of greater responsibility is anyone's guess. But the movement is coming.
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[Final note, as people are wondering: the author of this thread is a crazy social conservative, and center or center right on most other questions. He does not think O-C's success is a good thing, only that it is a very *real* thing and should be recognized as such. ]
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Great thread, thanks. Also: the Dems are clearly going to invest heavily in her political education. My bet is that she gets a lot more agile, in interviews and on the stump, very quickly.
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They might not. Pelosi has little interest in taking the protestor outside her door under her wing
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based on my limited knowledge of her and her campaigning thus far, stuff like going on instagram live is smart - kairos. regular ppl use insta live. she has an intuitive understanding of rhetoric and her base unlike establishment dems, so it seems.
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I should also point out that the symmetric opposite is happening in conservative circles. establishment is too far removed, doesnt understand the grassroots emotion/train of thought, so to speak. so newcomers enter, like trump et al. psychology and rhetoric are key.
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Totally agree with your points. I hope you turn out wrong about her, because her policy ideas are beyond insane, but I think you are right. The American people love identity politics and are so uneducated in basic civics that they accept her ridiculous promises at face value.
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She’s running on class warfare, not identity politics though I yearn for the brave pol who will run on generational welfare, stand up for Millenials, and protect us from Boomer pillage. We’ve brought roses to a knife fight.
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