A fundamental question if you are trying to assess someone's plans and psychology: What is your theory of history? #greatfounder
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another practical reason is a theory of history may necessarily need to predict its own effects to have significant power
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There are however theories that do this well. Some fun math proofs for starters.
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Nice summary of that paradox/paradigm,
@SamoBurja! Have you read Asimov's FOUNDATiON series? -
Yes! Among my favorite book series.
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Seems kind of intractable to me. Would be inclined to think more along lines of: (1) learning historical red flags, (2) figuring out a way to insure against ruin by any of multiple causes. But this is for an individual/family, not a would be political actorpic.twitter.com/3wBedzCNbE
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Preppers often talk about need to prepare for multiple possible disasters in a general way rather than trying to get cute guessing whether an emp vs a contagion will hit us
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