Whenever I see demographic projections for more than 10 years I take them as interesting scenarios to think through. They don't qualify as predictions however.
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Demographic projections have an awful track record. Not predictive.
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There are several reasons for this including: states are incentivized to deceive, local authorities are often incentivized to lie, the numbers are usually produced as statistical backing for policy or PR, we don't have a good theory of human fertility...
6:51 PM - 15 Feb 2018
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