In early 2017 I made the prediction that 2018 will be the year America realizes China has surpassed it.
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This is a qualified statement of course. The US is ahead on many dimensions.
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However the most important dimension, expectations about the future flipped in 2018: The new default is Chinese hegemony *over* rather than Chinese assimilation *into* the Western order.
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2018 is the year the American establishment realizes the future belongs to China.
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This also means 2018 is the year of American awakening. We shall see more and more its institutions strain to alter the expected outcome of Chinese hegemony.
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This response against China, will reveal fresh reserves. It will allow us to more accurately judge the health of American institutions.
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I expect over the next few decades we will find American institutions lacking.
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An additional consequence is that 2018 is the year of the return of high stakes geopolitics.
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Putin was playing geopolitics 2000-2018, but the stakes were low. What was being decided was the speed of Russian relative decline and whether it would be absolute decline as well.
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Because geopolitics will be high stakes, expect new players who previously wouldn't have built up states (gone into more lucrative or interesting positions) to now invest energies into their states.
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