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SamHarrisOrg's profile
Sam Harris
Sam Harris
Sam Harris
Verified account
@SamHarrisOrg

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Sam HarrisVerified account

@SamHarrisOrg

Author of The End of Faith, The Moral Landscape, Waking Up, and other bestselling books published in over 20 languages. Host of the Waking Up podcast.

samharris.org
Joined February 2010

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    Sam Harris‏Verified account @SamHarrisOrg Oct 4

    Sam Harris Retweeted Steven Pinker

    .91https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1047946091637948417 …

    Sam Harris added,

    Steven PinkerVerified account @sapinker
    How to use Bayesian reasoning to think through whether Kavanaugh did It (and to be aware of the role of prior biases in our assessment). by Eric Saund https://medium.com/@saund/did-kavenaugh-do-it-9fb3e08bb2a3 …
    2:58 PM - 4 Oct 2018
    • 57 Retweets
    • 416 Likes
    • Nancy Miller Edward Tay Marc Talbot Rich Neal (rrneal) Susan B Fayas Mohamed Joseph Allen Alex Martin JU
    145 replies 57 retweets 416 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Zward25‏ @Zward25 Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        This is a totally preposterous use of Bayes. It’s like you guys just learned about priors and are throwing out buzz words to make yourselves looks smart!

        1 reply 1 retweet 33 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. ConTraRiaN IncLinAtiOnZ‏ @MindContra Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        How to use motivated reasoning to believe a man is guilty with 0 evidence..

        0 replies 1 retweet 13 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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      1. New conversation
      2. nycspicebo‏ @nycspicebo Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        pic.twitter.com/zkSdDY4KJ3

        2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
      3. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Mediator‏ @Mediatorlogos Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        How about we don't use Bayesian reasoning because unless you're testing a very specific null hypothesis with several bodies of work informing observations around that null hypothesis, your priors are just going to be question begging.

        3 replies 0 retweets 23 likes
      3. Shuttlecock‏ @Shuttlecock7 Oct 4
        Replying to @Mediatorlogos @SamHarrisOrg

        I understood some of those words.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. Kaugh‏ @Kaughful Oct 4
        Replying to @Shuttlecock7 @Mediatorlogos @SamHarrisOrg

        I understand you like badminton or have the greatest porn name I've ever seen.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. Shuttlecock‏ @Shuttlecock7 Oct 4
        Replying to @Kaughful @Mediatorlogos @SamHarrisOrg

        twitter wouldn't let me use rocketpenis.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Mudskipper‏ @eddiejRobo Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        Sam is usually useless with anything related politics. I’ll take the other side of his position.

        1 reply 0 retweets 9 likes
      3. Endren Miers‏ @evilmiera Oct 4
        Replying to @eddiejRobo @SamHarrisOrg

        His position of "Trump is a moron unfit for office" is simple enough to understand and agree with, so are you just being contrarian there? Presumptuous of me perhaps, but still.

        3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Mudskipper‏ @eddiejRobo Oct 4
        Replying to @evilmiera @SamHarrisOrg

        Personally I’m tired with people who were ‘fit for office’ running the show. If you hadn’t noticed, they’ve been kinda screwing things up for a long time.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. D3‏ @david_third Oct 4
        Replying to @eddiejRobo @evilmiera @SamHarrisOrg

        By this logic you could also argue for OJ Simpson or Charles Manson for President. Not being a traditional politician isn’t a qualification - especially if your other talents are serial liar, adulterer and fraudster.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. VeryHungryMoose‏ @VeryHungryMoose Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        Do your priors change *at all* after this? https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/kavanaugh-hearings-perjury-claims-never-credible/amp/?__twitter_impression=true …

        7 replies 0 retweets 24 likes
      3. Tim Freeman‏ @ovjocm Oct 4
        Replying to @VeryHungryMoose @SamHarrisOrg

        In general evidence does not change prior probabilities. Prior probabilities are what you believe prior to encountering evidence. Evidence changes posterior probabilities.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      4. VeryHungryMoose‏ @VeryHungryMoose Oct 4
        Replying to @ovjocm @SamHarrisOrg

        Uh, “update priors” is very common parlance. That’s largely synonymous with “changing priors”. Also, it can refer to changing priors for *future* decisions. Today’s posteriors are tomorrow’s priors.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      5. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. Adeline Freedman‏ @AdelineFreedman Oct 4
        Replying to @SamHarrisOrg

        Ooo, I believe he's guilty, but my answers show that the probability of his guilt is fairly low. Yuck!

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      3. Eric C. Hendriks‏ @ericchendriks Oct 4
        Replying to @AdelineFreedman @SamHarrisOrg

        Same here.

        1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
      4. Adeline Freedman‏ @AdelineFreedman Oct 4
        Replying to @ericchendriks @SamHarrisOrg

        Damn! I hate being even-handed.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      5. Eric C. Hendriks‏ @ericchendriks Oct 4
        Replying to @AdelineFreedman @SamHarrisOrg

        I wonder which variables Sam estimated differently for him to get such a high score. The end score I got was unbelievably low. 0.15. Makes no sense.

        2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      6. Adeline Freedman‏ @AdelineFreedman Oct 4
        Replying to @ericchendriks @SamHarrisOrg

        Clearly he went full blue.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      7. End of conversation

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