Excited to share more about SumerSports, the company I’ve been with for the last 4 months. We’re just getting started.
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Paul Sabin
@SabinAnalytics
VP Football Analytics | former ESPN Analytics | PhD | English, Français | Alumnus:
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I have taken 10 flights the last 2.5 weeks and on every single one of them someone next to me or in front of me has been watching Top Gun: Maverick. I mean it was good but enough already.
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Seriously though the first plus value pick for the Lions this draft.
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Hendon Hooker ROY let’s go.
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All credit to for building this model and for engineering it to run 100k sims in a few seconds. I couldn't do that.
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Draft modeling is hard. fwiw our Draft Model had Levis at 58% to be picked in the first 4 picks but still had 11% he'd make it out of round one. This is where we see him going now - pretty flat. Give him a 19% chance to make it to round 3.
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I can’t get over these graphics. Who wrote these player cards?
JUICE!?! what does that mean?
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NFL loves to see saw. WR run last year and not a Singtel one has been taken yet. Great value here for upcoming teams to get one.
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Have to think the Jalen Hurts deal played a large part in this being resolved.
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Lamar Jackson has signed a 5-year, $260 million deal with the Baltimore Ravens, per @RapSheet.
That makes him the highest-paid player in NFL history.
And by negotiating it himself, Lamar saved between $2.6 million and $7.8 million in agent fees (1-3%).
That's legendary.
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I don’t either. The problem is mostly fitting a game into a 3 hr window. Still allows the stoppage at end of halves for comebacks and a few less plays means a few more upsets.
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Mildly hot take given my Twitter persona: I don’t really have a problem with this twitter.com/dennisdoddcbs/…
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Snyder bought one of the two most valuable franchises in 1998 and ran it into the ground. I hope the NFL awards DC a Super Bowl the day after they approve the sale just to send one big middle finger his way.
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From @NFLTotalAccess: A monumental day in Washington, as #Commanders owner Dan Snyder reached an agreement with Josh Harris’ group to sell the team for $6.05B.
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Fully expecting Mbappe to play there at some point, should I start becoming a Real Madrid fan now? Camavinga & Rodrygo as the future are a lot of fun to watch #RMACHE
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This still holds true, except now UConn has done it three times.
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Since 2007, UConn is the only team to win the title when not ranked in the top 4 of preseason BPI, and the Huskies did it twice. This year’s top 4:
1. @KUHoops
2. @UNC_Basketball
3. @UVAMensHoops
4. @ZagMBB
espn.com/bpi
#hoops
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Incredible that UConn once again is the only team that can win without being a top contender going into the season. 16 non-COVID seasons in a row now.
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When I redid ESPN’s BPI in 2016 I wrote that a top 4 preseason BPI team won the title each year that I could backfill the metric (since ‘07) each year except twice. UConn in ‘11 & ‘14. If UConn wins Monday that Top 4 or UConn trend will survive another year.
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When I redid ESPN’s BPI in 2016 I wrote that a top 4 preseason BPI team won the title each year that I could backfill the metric (since ‘07) each year except twice. UConn in ‘11 & ‘14. If UConn wins Monday that Top 4 or UConn trend will survive another year.
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I wouldn’t be so sure. Yes TV viewership in sports generally has trended down but my previous research suggested “Cinderella” teams are actually a draw, not a detriment to Men’s Final Four TV viewership
degruyter.com/document/doi/1
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The men's Final Four will likely have record-low viewership.
The women's Final Four will likely have record-high viewership.
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a month ago, we launched the new sumersports.com
since then, we've published some great work at the interface of analytics and football
a thread:
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Not going to give away if it's more or less likely unless you read the article.
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TLDR: Young QB's who produce more w/ legs are _____ likely to improve production in year 3. An interesting application of regression to the mean!
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A new article by our own @SabinAnalytics on the historical success of young, mobile quarterbacks and how that helps us understand the Justin Fields situation:
sumersports.com/the-zone/playi
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A new article by our own on the historical success of young, mobile quarterbacks and how that helps us understand the Justin Fields situation:
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The 2 best players squaring off in classic final of a world competition but can't win anything for their club team? Trout & Ohtani or Mbappe & Messi?
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If you aren't impressed, you should be. Mike Trout has had 3 swinging strikes in only 24 of his 6,174 career MLB plate appearances!
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Shane is the best choice to lead BYU but I will say he was known to be a frequent cherry picker on the Richard’s Building courts at 6 AM Friday mornings (right ?)😂
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QOTD: What are you general thoughts on the new President of Brigham Young University (Shane Reese)?
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We are thrilled to welcome and work alongside Shane Reese—the 14th President of BYU.
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Truly a phenomenal choice to lead BYU. Dr. Reese is one of the reasons I've been able to make sports a career. He failed me on my first exam in his class and I wanted to quit but helped me through and somehow I still loved his class afterword.
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26.2 round 3. Was trying to qualify for Boston which I needed to run 3:05. Was ahead of that pace through 21 miles but a very strong headwind miles 22-25 broke my will. Final time 3:10:34, 20 minutes better than my previous PR which I set 5 months ago.
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I guess Sam Darnold leaving there was an open red haired QB roster spot.
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Veteran free-agent QB Andy Dalton is expected to reach agreement on a two-year, $10 million deal that includes $8 million fully guaranteed with the Carolina Panthers, per source. Contract max value is $17 million.
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I knew Justin Fields was athletic but this is quite the list of great mobile quarterbacks to be leading. While his passing has room to improve, all but RG3 on this list got better as a passer after year 2.
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How to build something that’s both applied, scientifically, sound, and useful via @JezData.
si.com/golf/news/pga-
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Thanks Ron, any positive vibes from you go a long way!
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40 Million for the 3rd best QB in the division is going to hamper the team more than a franchise tag on Saquon.
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Just ahead of today’s franchise tag deadline, the Giants and QB Daniel Jones reached agreement on a new four-year deal, per sources.
Franchise tag is now available for RB Saquon Barkley.
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RT if you want to see Jameis Winston go back to Tampa Bay
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NFC South QBs under contract for next season as of today:
Saints:
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston*
Jake Luton
Falcons:
Desmond Ridder
Logan Woodside
Buccaneers
Kyle Trask
Panthers:
Matt Corral
Jacob Eason
*likely cap casualty
Derek Carr
Jameis Winston*
Jake Luton
Falcons:
Desmond Ridder
Logan Woodside
Buccaneers
Kyle Trask
Panthers:
Matt Corral
Jacob Eason
*likely cap casualty5
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#Saints current quarterbacks, ranked by me and vibes:
Jameis Winston
Taysom Hill
Derek Carr
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#Saints all-time quarterbacks, ranked by me and vibes:
Drew Brees
Archie Manning
Bobby Hebert
Aaron Brooks
Derek Carr
then it's all the three-named guys like Billy Joe Tolliver
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My 10 year old was asking Alexa about top players contracts from each NFL team, writing them down, then giving each team a rating out of 10 at the end. your NFL notepad is being put to good use.
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Combine and Sloan made for a long week, happy to be headed home. Great things happening here at and we’re just getting started.
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The athletic traits are all there… but he was a QB with SEC talent that wasn’t able to win at an elite level in college. If I’m an NFL team I better be sure whatever reason he didn’t win in college is something that is either fixable or won’t apply in the NFL.
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Florida QB Anthony Richardson at the 2023 NFL Combine:
Height: 6'4 1/4" (taller than George Kittle)
Weight: 244 lbs (heavier than Haason Reddick)
Hand: 10 1/2" (bigger than DeAndre Hopkins)
Vert: 40.5” (higher than Davante Adams)
Broad jump: 10’9” (longer than Odell Beckham Jr)
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