But, if we end up surpassing the next most optimistic, wouldn't that automatically lead to new models worse than the Read model?
I've updated this chart tracking the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus in China, relative to different scenarios. Can clearly rule out the most optimistic. This week should determine whether the next most optimistic is feasible or whether the outlook is far worse. (h/t @xcyale)pic.twitter.com/WT8eUpv4yC
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This forecast from HKU looks even worse, they ‘estimated that if there was no reduction in transmissibility, the Wuhan epidemic would peak around April, 2020, and local epidemics across cities in mainland China would lag by 1–2 weeks’https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext …
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What is driving the difference between the Read / Nanshan model? They seem similar at first
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This
@voxdotcom piece compares the different scenarios in this chart and more. A caveat is that the chart focuses on R0, i.e. infectiousness, but not another key indicator - case fatality rate (CFR).https://www.vox.com/2020/1/28/21079946/coronavirus-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic … - Još 1 odgovor
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Not a chance, it is based on bogus numbers. Thousands more dead than is being told by the CCP, exponentially more infected.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Deaths can peak and then trough multiple times, especially with the virus now in multiple countries, each with their own level of competence in dealing with it.https://twitter.com/Molson_Hart/status/1223827907619053568 …
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Incubation period longer than estimated, quarantine lifted, quarantine etc. partially dismantled, pandemic restarts, delay restarting quarantine etc. second peak. Moral, (if accurate): Don't be in a hurry to lift the quarantine procedures and infrastructure.
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Wait until it gets going in India - game over
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And from there to Africa...
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Numbers. Not. Truthful.
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For sure! All he can do is work with the reported numbers though. We can only give credence to numbers outside of China to get accurate r0 and mortality rate.
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Čini se da učitavanje traje već neko vrijeme.
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