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I don’t think any of our longtermist grants rely ~at all in practice on long run predictions, or even that much on longtermism.
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Replying to @moskov
One of the big challenges with utilitarianism, is that the further the view, the less possible you can predict unintended consequences. Longtermism takes this fault to its max How does effective altruism overcome this impossible forecasting task?
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Per the quote some things are practically incommensurate and for that we use world view diversification. openphilanthropy.org/research/world But within the views, especially Global Health, they are often very commensurate. Eg many different things impact child mortality
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Replying to @moskov
My skepticism is centered on this framing of the argument (which for all I know is a terrible frame, I’m not we’ll read on it.) But I’m pretty suspicious of meaningful measurement in this area. What do you think?
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Replying to and
Isn’t the other problem getting policymakers from both parties to have concern for others outside the nation state? (Global poor, climate, future people, etc) Also, to have concern beyond the next election cycle?
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Replying to and
Do you think the best way to prevent the next pandemic is through policy and thus politics? I think we can do more in conjunction to that...
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