27) So blockchain can create simpler, more equitable, and less risky market structure and settlement.
It can help us avoid problems like Gamestop day. And, for that matter, LME Nickel: https://ftxpolicy.com/posts/risk-management….
28) So how about social media?
Right now, if you tweet something, and your friend pulls out Facebook, they can’t see your tweet.
Social media networks are isolated, not interoperable.
29) This means that everyone has to manage 10 different apps, and our networks and conversations are fractured.
In addition, all of your network, and friends, and data, are tied to a specific platform.
30) The largest networks have pseudo-monopolies, with gigantic network effects that prevent new competitors.
And how does censorship work? Well, basically, the leaders of the top few social networks have to make unilateral decisions.
31) Let’s say that, instead, we put messages on a blockchain.
So if you used Blockchain-Twitter (BT):
--You type the message in BT’s interface
--BT posts the message on a public blockchain
--Your friend pulls out Blockchain-Facebook (BF)
--BF reads your message and displays it
32) By using an underlying public chain for messages, we’ve made different networks compatible.
You can use any platform, and still talk to all your friends on every platform.
Your messages, and network, are yours: you can move platforms and keep them.
33) New platforms can read/write from the chain, inheriting the network effects, allowing real competition.
And each platform can make moderation decisions, so at least there’s diversity of opinions.
34) I could see blockchain having a large impact on payments, remittances, market structure, and social media.
And this list isn’t exhaustive; there are tons of areas blockchain can innovate in. I haven’t really touched at all on DeFi, or web3 gaming.
35) But taking a step back: how many of these areas has crypto revolutionized so far?
I think the answer is “not really any of them”. It’s starting to impact some, but not in a widespread way yet.
So what could get us there from here?
36)
(i) Technology. Right now the fastest chains can handle 5-50k TPS. We probably need to scale that up to ~1m TPS, whether it’s through L1s, L2s, lightning, rollups, etc. I’m guessing we’ll get there in ~3-7 years.
37)
(ii) Regulation. There needs to be regulatory clarity in order to get mass adoption, and the major platforms have to become licensed. I’m really impressed by the progress the US has made in the last year!
39)
(iv) Network effects. Many of these use cases don’t work unless two people both use crypto: buyer/seller; sender/receiver; tweeter/reader.
That means we have to get up to ~30% adoption by person for (30%^2 =10%) adoption by transaction.
Regulations mean we lose control. As for “mass adoption” in 2018, 8% of Americans owned crypto. 2021, 23.2% own crypto, without regulations. Handing over control defeats what bitcoin was about in the beginning and gives the government a new avenue to take over.
Could you outline the progress the US has made on regulation for things beyond centralized entities with $200k for legal?
I don't see it. First I've seen is Gensler saying this week that they may need to tailor disclosure for crypto.
All I have seen is combative.
I see zero innovation on regulatory. They tell projects to come talk to them and threaten them. They strong arm projects with legal threats & indictments. Your thread is about decentralized concepts, but none of those things are possible to start in US except social.
Ah yes! I think so too! And I think when USA becomes the world’s #1 #btc holder, they can even vaporise their $30 trillion debt.
Noting that BIS has allowed 1% of reserves in #btc. Won’t be too long before more countries including the USA recognizes “digital gold” #btc.