Conversation

Risk Management: Avoiding the Next “LME Nickel” Market Incident

27) So blockchain can create simpler, more equitable, and less risky market structure and settlement. It can help us avoid problems like Gamestop day. And, for that matter, LME Nickel: ftxpolicy.com/posts/risk-man.

ftxpolicy.com

In early March, a Chinese investor with a short position on nickel through derivatives suffered losses when the cost of nickel began to increase substantially. Along with other commodities, nickel...

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28) So how about social media? Right now, if you tweet something, and your friend pulls out Facebook, they can’t see your tweet. Social media networks are isolated, not interoperable.

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29) This means that everyone has to manage 10 different apps, and our networks and conversations are fractured. In addition, all of your network, and friends, and data, are tied to a specific platform.

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30) The largest networks have pseudo-monopolies, with gigantic network effects that prevent new competitors. And how does censorship work? Well, basically, the leaders of the top few social networks have to make unilateral decisions.

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31) Let’s say that, instead, we put messages on a blockchain. So if you used Blockchain-Twitter (BT): --You type the message in BT’s interface --BT posts the message on a public blockchain --Your friend pulls out Blockchain-Facebook (BF) --BF reads your message and displays it

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32) By using an underlying public chain for messages, we’ve made different networks compatible. You can use any platform, and still talk to all your friends on every platform. Your messages, and network, are yours: you can move platforms and keep them.

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33) New platforms can read/write from the chain, inheriting the network effects, allowing real competition. And each platform can make moderation decisions, so at least there’s diversity of opinions.

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34) I could see blockchain having a large impact on payments, remittances, market structure, and social media. And this list isn’t exhaustive; there are tons of areas blockchain can innovate in. I haven’t really touched at all on DeFi, or web3 gaming.

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35) But taking a step back: how many of these areas has crypto revolutionized so far? I think the answer is “not really any of them”. It’s starting to impact some, but not in a widespread way yet. So what could get us there from here?

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1:05 PM · Jul 16, 2022Twitter Web App

36) (i) Technology. Right now the fastest chains can handle 5-50k TPS. We probably need to scale that up to ~1m TPS, whether it’s through L1s, L2s, lightning, rollups, etc. I’m guessing we’ll get there in ~3-7 years.

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37) (ii) Regulation. There needs to be regulatory clarity in order to get mass adoption, and the major platforms have to become licensed. I’m really impressed by the progress the US has made in the last year!

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38) (iii) Great products. Builders have to focus on building great products, not on monetization as the core product.

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39) (iv) Network effects. Many of these use cases don’t work unless two people both use crypto: buyer/seller; sender/receiver; tweeter/reader. That means we have to get up to ~30% adoption by person for (30%^2 =10%) adoption by transaction.

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