Conversation

1) People suck at presenting results form a scientific study.

120

285

2,120

2) Take, e.g., cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7. There are two big problems with how this study is presented.

Pediatric COVID-19 Cases in Counties...

This report describes pediatric COVID-19 cases in counties with and without school mask requirements.

3

4

168

3) First, the highlight is that mask mandates decreased COVID in schools, P<0.001. Which, sure, it would be pretty weird if they didn't decrease COVID *at all*. But--everything's a tradeoff. How much impact do they have?

3

6

215

4) Well, there's not much discussion of that! Because the core focus is that there's a *statistically significant* result, rather than how *important* that result is. That's stupid. The more important question is how large the effect is, not how large the study was!

8

9

373

5) In this case, it seems like the mandates decreased COVID in schools by ~20 cases per 100,000 children per week. That's ~0.02%/week, or ~1%/year. Would you rather: a) wear a mask for 100 years b) get COVID once I'll let you judge how the benefits compare to the costs.

21

80

572

@carolinecapital

Replying to

isn't this graph showing per day not per week

2

2

16

Replying to

@carolinecapital

oof--that's correct, it's daily cases 1 week out. So actually something like 7x that -- 7%/year.

12:04 AM · Feb 16, 2022Twitter Web App

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

still would rather get covid once than wear a mask for 14 years tho

1

1

15

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

Kids are great best vector for virus transmission to the at risk. I think the entire discussion is...should kids wear masks to protect grandma and grandpa? Nice civil debates so far on this thread.

@ZohaibA07997190

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

Hello Mr sam

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

Why focus only on 1 week out? The 2 week out data there is more relevant given time for exposure and incubation. Looks like that's about double so ~14%/year. (I still think school mask mandates should be lifting now)

1

1

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

Although school year is only ~180 days, so that brings us back to the ~7%/year

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

It's significant on a larger, population wide, epidemiological level. Honestly, for a guy as supremely clever as you...🤦‍♂️You will find that most kids do not suffer a psychological crisis when wearing a mask. 😂

Replying to

and

@carolinecapital

Quote Tweet

1) People suck at presenting results form a scientific study.

Show this thread

1

2

Replying to

Your tweet was quoted in an article by Post

Disgraced crypto CEO Caroline Ellison tweeted about 'regular...

Ellison is a close business associate and confirmed ex-girlfriend of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.