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14) They're a huge budget team which is being run, for the first time in a while, with a strong analytical bent. It's amazing to think back on how revolutionary Moneyball seemed when Michael Lewis wrote it. Today, it's hard to miss.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

15) The teams most associated with analytics in baseball have massively outperformed their budgets: collectively the

, and

-- and the

and

under Epstein -- have been represented in each of the last 6 world series.

16) And the

are starting to show the signs of an organization that has discovered numbers. --Their player development weirdly outperforms (think of their pitching staff this year!) --You've never heard of any of their outfielders, but they had the 3rd best in baseball

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

17) (The Giants had 6 different players produce 1+ WAR in the outfield last year! Their LF platoon of Ruf, Slater, and Wade outperformed nearly every team.)

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

18) I used to want to become a GM for a baseball team. There are, I think, a set of things you could implement that would be worth more to the team than any single player in the league.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

19) But as I look on it now, I worry that being a baseball GM is getting too commoditized. I'm sure that's a gross oversimplification. But, slowly, team after team has realized the gains from common sense changes, and the competitive advantage gets smaller.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

20) I think there's one last frontier for in-game baseball strategy that could be worth a huge amount, although the league might rulemake away much of its advantage this offseason. It's based on the following claims:

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

21) a) Pitchers get tired the more they pitch in a day b) (a) isn't just a reflection of yearly usage: pitchers are in fact decently refreshed after taking a day off c) pitchers get worse the 2nd/3rd/etc. time they face a batter, because the batter gets used to their stuff

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

22) d) pitchers suck at hitting (no offence Greinke/Bumgarner!) e) there are substantial gains to getting platooon advantage if you can be nimble with your pitchers We've started to see some of these play out with "openers". But what's the final form?

SBF

@SBF_FTX

Nov 4, 2021

23) Well, (a) and (b) imply that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings in a game. (c) implies that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings. (d) implies that you want to pinch hit for your pitchers.... every few innings. (e) implies that you want to...

SBF

@SBF_FTX

24) They actually all imply the same thing: especially in the NL, I think pitchers should almost *never* go through the order more than once. You should pinch hit for them *every time* they bat.

7:24 AM · Nov 4, 2021Twitter Web App

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25) Wins from pinch hitting: 4.6 (based off of wOBA) Wins from pitcher fatigue/times through order: 3 Platoon wins: idk, another 1-2? Overall I think this is worth ~5-10 wins for the average NL team (at least as long as there's no DH).

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As a Giants fan in my mid 40's who braved the winds at Candlestick on a Friday night with 800 of us in the park, to the Giants teams of the 2010's I appreciated this thread. Grasping how dominant Barry Bonds was is almost impossible. TIL that SBF is a Giants fan. Love it.

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One issue I see with this are limits on sizes of rosters/bullpens. Hoping we see more guys who both pitch and play a position in the future. I think Ohtani may have changed some thinking. There are a number of guys who could’ve done it in the past but teams were not open to it.

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