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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
12) Anyway I guess I was prompted to write this post today because the rumor is that Posey -- the thread of continuity for the Giants' decade -- is going to announce his retirement, firmly ending the era.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
13) But the truth is that I'm more optimistic about the 2020's Giants than I was about the 2010's. It's hard to argue that they didn't get lucky to achieve what they have. But even in the past few years, we've seen the promise of what the Giants can become under Farhan Zaidi.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
14) They're a huge budget team which is being run, for the first time in a while, with a strong analytical bent. It's amazing to think back on how revolutionary Moneyball seemed when Michael Lewis wrote it. Today, it's hard to miss.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
16) And the
@SFGiants
are starting to show the signs of an organization that has discovered numbers. --Their player development weirdly outperforms (think of their pitching staff this year!) --You've never heard of any of their outfielders, but they had the 3rd best in baseball
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
17) (The Giants had 6 different players produce 1+ WAR in the outfield last year! Their LF platoon of Ruf, Slater, and Wade outperformed nearly every team.)
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
18) I used to want to become a GM for a baseball team. There are, I think, a set of things you could implement that would be worth more to the team than any single player in the league.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
19) But as I look on it now, I worry that being a baseball GM is getting too commoditized. I'm sure that's a gross oversimplification. But, slowly, team after team has realized the gains from common sense changes, and the competitive advantage gets smaller.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
20) I think there's one last frontier for in-game baseball strategy that could be worth a huge amount, although the league might rulemake away much of its advantage this offseason. It's based on the following claims:
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
21) a) Pitchers get tired the more they pitch in a day b) (a) isn't just a reflection of yearly usage: pitchers are in fact decently refreshed after taking a day off c) pitchers get worse the 2nd/3rd/etc. time they face a batter, because the batter gets used to their stuff
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
23) Well, (a) and (b) imply that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings in a game. (c) implies that you only want a pitcher to throw a few innings. (d) implies that you want to pinch hit for your pitchers.... every few innings. (e) implies that you want to...
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
24) They actually all imply the same thing: especially in the NL, I think pitchers should almost *never* go through the order more than once. You should pinch hit for them *every time* they bat.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
25) Wins from pinch hitting: 4.6 (based off of wOBA) Wins from pitcher fatigue/times through order: 3 Platoon wins: idk, another 1-2? Overall I think this is worth ~5-10 wins for the average NL team (at least as long as there's no DH).
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