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"On passes over the middle and from 10 to 20 yards deep, the Chargers defense is ranked 26th in the NFL in EPA per play surrendered -- and that’s right where Jackson likes to attack. Jackson has been launching downfield missiles all season long" 5 game sample, fucking lol

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All football analytics articles come with the caveat of small same size. It's not just statistical analysis, it matches the eye test and your expectations for someone of Jackson's talents. He puts LBs in a bind, letting him sneak passes in behind them. Always has.

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that's true on first down too, though; not sure I'd expect to have strong splits based on downs

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I think it does though. If you're not spying Jackson with your best athlete on 3rd down he's going to run for it anyway. Unfortunately those are also the guys that tend to get tasked with defending that area of the field against the pass, illustrating how he's able to work there

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but why isn't the same effect there on 1st down?

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Because if he runs for the 1st on 1st very little had changed. Field position is overrated for winning games. It's 3rd and 4th where he runs are most dangerous, keeping a drive alive

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On the flipside, though, on 1st downs both running and passing are pretty reasonable; by 3rd down often it's clear which is likely to be better, which probably hurts a dual-threat QB? IDK, I could be wrong on this one.

4:48 PM · Oct 16, 2021Twitter Web App

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You typically want to pass more than run on first down (which a majority of teams do). I think you might be thinking exclusively about designed runs with dual threat quarterbacks but Jackson is still very much a threat on 3rd down scrambling off designed passes

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Isn't it more clear which play has to be called on 3rd for a QB who can't pick up a first down on his feet than it is for a guy who can call a pass and then pick up the first if he sees a gap? Seems like the dual threat has a huge advantage particularly in these spots.