FWIW this very much lines up with my prior -- most splits are dumb attempts to construct a narrative, and in fact just using overall lines is generally more predictive.
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Replying to @benbbaldwin
Fwiw, 3rd down performance isn't more volatile and less predictive after accounting for the lower sample size, iirc. (I should check this again)
Basically, overall performance is still king and the two are pretty even in that regard.
