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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
3) Sample sizes, mostly. The sample sizes so far are pretty small -- around 60 3rd down attempts per team. The difference between the Ravens and Chargers completion % is about 14% (35% vs 49%); the standard deviation due to raw luck here is ~40%/sqrt(60)*sqrt(2) ~ 7%
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) So this is a 2 standard deviation effect. Big, right? Not really. There are 15 games this week; just choosing the largest discrepancy from those games would yield a result this large on average. And looking specifically at this game, there are a ton of possible factors.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) But more damningly, there's no attempt to justify this as a likely factor. What makes the priors on it high enough to overcome p-hacking?
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) The thing is, writing constant sports columns is *hard*. In the end, what's the "right" article on the Chargers vs Ravens? Probably something like "idk, they're both good, Lamar Jackson might lead the game in rushing, though I guess Austin Ekeler could too."
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) And that article is boring. But to write a better-than-boring article, you have to say more than the average sports fan would know about a game, and those new facts have to be interesting and meaningful. That's fucking hard.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
8) That's what teams hire departments to try to do--come up with actionable analyses that are better than public ones--and combine with proprietary data and tracking. It's not impossible--it's just hard. To write great content, you have to be great at it, and try really hard.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) Relative to the status quo, that accurately describes fivethirtyeight circa 2008: the best public resource for election modeling. And, maybe, 2012. But not 2021.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) Over time, like so many things, its content has become a random milieu of smart-but-not-smart-enough takes, and models that aren't quite good enough to beat common sense. See, e.g., their 2020 election model--not terrible, but worse than "meh, < 50%, but at least 25%".
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
11) It's been 8 years since fivethirtyeight's presidential election model was more accurate than the in-house models I helped build, and the rate of real groaners has skyrocketed (fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i). The sports journalism, meanwhile, has been even worse.
fivethirtyeight.com
How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump
Since Donald Trump effectively wrapped up the Republican nomination this month, I’ve seen a lot of critical self-assessments from empirically minded journalists…
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
12) Anyway, I guess this is another thing to file the ever growing list of "things I hope never happen to FTX".
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Web3Wizard🪄
@Web3Wizard
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
Sam, let’s have a discussion on how building a strong talent infrastructure is the major 🔑 4 the Solana eco-system. How can I reach you to share my insights as a quant and engineer recruiter? Web3 needs more conscious coordination in order to sustain growth 🪄 #web3 #defi
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Tecato
@tecato_g
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
right on ... b) is where i think you will find the pressure ... going to be tough to hold that line ... i have a small company 100 employees and even i have that challenge so the pressure must be immense ... godspeed my friend ... we need more like you on the front lines
Ctpersona
@ctpersona
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
Totally agree, it is really important for a manager to visit other companies and even rivals, to see what they are doing different. Turning blind to your own companies short-comings in time is one of the worst things that can happen.