1) OK so pet peeve:
You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".
Conversation
2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback! fivethirtyeight.com/features/rejoi
But it makes no sense.
1
1
43
Replying to
hmm I would push back on this if you are a heavy underdog and it doesn't significantly affect your expected point value shouldn't you try to minimize the number of possessions in the game thus increasing role of chance?
5
1
take the argument to extremes, if I were a huge underdog and I could somehow make a football game one possession each I take that deal instantly; conversely if I'm a big favorite and I can make it 100 possessions each (let's ignore threat of injuries) I want that deal
2
3
*clarification obviously my meaning is this is where the delta in expected points per possession is vanishingly small and the ability to reduce possessions is quite high so it doesn't always apply and I'm not familiar with this specific game
1
**nor have I read the 538 article so I suppose I should go do that haha
1
Replying to
yeah in extremes that's true but in practice people's running vs passing performance is generally way more impactful than the increasing variance factor
But we didn't dive into if the team they were playing against had a stronger run or pass defense. If this was tilted far in one direction would it change your thoughts?
2
Depends also on play calling style throughout the game
Coaches defensive call depends on your playing style throughout, like a poker match
1
1
I think both of you are forgetting to take defense into consideration. Sometimes these decisions (e.g., eat clock, vs. get more possessions), depends entirely on how much time your defense has spent on the field and how much gas they have left in the tank.
1
Last thing you want is a winded defense playing against an aggressive 2min drill
1
can't play football with Sam anymore he'd be like "oh my friend Tom is coming is that ok" and then before you know it it's 832-0
1
2
Show replies
