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1) OK so pet peeve: You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".

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2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback! fivethirtyeight.com/features/rejoi But it makes no sense.

fivethirtyeight.com

Rejoice, Nerds: Math Won The NFL (In Week 2, At Least)

The Ravens weren't afraid to go for it on fourth down.

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3) The thing is, if you run the ball, taking up more clock... Then that's time *neither* side can take advantage of. Let's say you can choose between 75% running or 75% passing on this possession, and each have equal % of scoring.

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4) 75% run: ~10m left 75% pass: ~12m left But just adding 2m to the game clock doesn't particularly advantage one team or the other, it just increases both team's point totals. Teams alternate possessions. You'll both get roughly the same number no matter how slowly you play!

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5) Obviously this isn't 100% true. a) a few mins left in half --> try to end the game on one of your possessions so you get an extra one b) if they're way better than you, you want a shorter game --> more volatility c) way down --> play quickly, way up --> play slowly

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6) But to first order, you should do whatever gets you the most points in expectation with your possession, and not worry about the clock impact unless it's near the end of the half or a team is way ahead.

5:41 AM · Sep 21, 2021Twitter Web App

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7) Lamar's rusing didn't beat Mahomes because he kept the ball out of his hands. He won because he's fucking fast. Lamar Jackson out-rushed the entire Chiefs team, and he's a QB. That's either a great sign for him, or a terrible sign for their RBs. Or, in this case, both.

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hmm I would push back on this if you are a heavy underdog and it doesn't significantly affect your expected point value shouldn't you try to minimize the number of possessions in the game thus increasing role of chance?

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take the argument to extremes, if I were a huge underdog and I could somehow make a football game one possession each I take that deal instantly; conversely if I'm a big favorite and I can make it 100 possessions each (let's ignore threat of injuries) I want that deal

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@realtimegibbon

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Partially agree, great offences score in 60 s of gametime or less, so burning clock isn't really logical anyway. BUT: Less time avail = fewer total plays. Fewer total plays means greater opportunity for luck to impact the outcome, and if you're the weaker team that's your target.

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Law of large numbers

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