Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
1) OK so pet peeve: You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
4) 75% run: ~10m left 75% pass: ~12m left But just adding 2m to the game clock doesn't particularly advantage one team or the other, it just increases both team's point totals. Teams alternate possessions. You'll both get roughly the same number no matter how slowly you play!
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) Obviously this isn't 100% true. a) a few mins left in half --> try to end the game on one of your possessions so you get an extra one b) if they're way better than you, you want a shorter game --> more volatility c) way down --> play quickly, way up --> play slowly
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) But to first order, you should do whatever gets you the most points in expectation with your possession, and not worry about the clock impact unless it's near the end of the half or a team is way ahead.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
7) Lamar's rusing didn't beat Mahomes because he kept the ball out of his hands. He won because he's fucking fast. Lamar Jackson out-rushed the entire Chiefs team, and he's a QB. That's either a great sign for him, or a terrible sign for their RBs. Or, in this case, both.
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Joe Mahon
@Substreight
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
the fundamental premise of running the clock is that your team has the advantage and is taking lower risk because there is a definitively lower % risk when running vs passing
BIGTIME
@smalltime_anon
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
But Sam you are forgetting that running the ball is also a psychological play to lure the deep backs in close and open up for the bomb pass Kinda like bull posting and then opening a big short
CryptoChuck
@DeFiWiz_
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
Generally running teams are focusing their salary cap on defense Get a lead, hold on to the ball, win the field position battle, repeat More teams win super bowls with this formula than high octane offenses