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Rejoice, Nerds: Math Won The NFL (In Week 2, At Least)

2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback! fivethirtyeight.com/features/rejoi But it makes no sense.

fivethirtyeight.com

The Ravens weren't afraid to go for it on fourth down.

5:41 AM · Sep 21, 2021Twitter Web App

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3) The thing is, if you run the ball, taking up more clock... Then that's time *neither* side can take advantage of. Let's say you can choose between 75% running or 75% passing on this possession, and each have equal % of scoring.

4) 75% run: ~10m left 75% pass: ~12m left But just adding 2m to the game clock doesn't particularly advantage one team or the other, it just increases both team's point totals. Teams alternate possessions. You'll both get roughly the same number no matter how slowly you play!

5) Obviously this isn't 100% true. a) a few mins left in half --> try to end the game on one of your possessions so you get an extra one b) if they're way better than you, you want a shorter game --> more volatility c) way down --> play quickly, way up --> play slowly

6) But to first order, you should do whatever gets you the most points in expectation with your possession, and not worry about the clock impact unless it's near the end of the half or a team is way ahead.