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1) OK so pet peeve: You're playing against a great offence, so you decide to run the ball more to "keep the ball out of their QB's hands".

5:41 AM · Sep 21, 2021Twitter Web App

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2) This is a really common suggestion. 538, known "quants", just suggested it without any pushback! fivethirtyeight.com/features/rejoi But it makes no sense.

fivethirtyeight.com

Rejoice, Nerds: Math Won The NFL (In Week 2, At Least)

The Ravens weren't afraid to go for it on fourth down.

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3) The thing is, if you run the ball, taking up more clock... Then that's time *neither* side can take advantage of. Let's say you can choose between 75% running or 75% passing on this possession, and each have equal % of scoring.

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4) 75% run: ~10m left 75% pass: ~12m left But just adding 2m to the game clock doesn't particularly advantage one team or the other, it just increases both team's point totals. Teams alternate possessions. You'll both get roughly the same number no matter how slowly you play!

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5) Obviously this isn't 100% true. a) a few mins left in half --> try to end the game on one of your possessions so you get an extra one b) if they're way better than you, you want a shorter game --> more volatility c) way down --> play quickly, way up --> play slowly

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6) But to first order, you should do whatever gets you the most points in expectation with your possession, and not worry about the clock impact unless it's near the end of the half or a team is way ahead.

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7) Lamar's rusing didn't beat Mahomes because he kept the ball out of his hands. He won because he's fucking fast. Lamar Jackson out-rushed the entire Chiefs team, and he's a QB. That's either a great sign for him, or a terrible sign for their RBs. Or, in this case, both.

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Sam please bullpost I am drowning

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😂 sbf did a whole thread on lamar! LEGENDARY

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Dr of $NAKAVERSE

@TheSnip39095597

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Wtf are you even trying to say. I didn't get anything am I ngmi ?

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The advantage is when you’re a big underdog against a great QB. Almost everyone is an underdog against Patrick Mahomes. You want fewer possessions in the game to increase the effect of randomness. *IF* your chances to score were the same, you would want to run more than pass.

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The Chiefs had 9 offensive possessions against the Ravens Assuming all else is equal (It’s not), your chances of beating Mahomes and his 9 offensive drives is much higher than beating Mahomes with 12 offensive drives I’ve been screaming about coaching for 10 years on Twitter 🤷‍♂️

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