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4) Our data has Huobi doing about $750B of volume in July (roughly $25B/day). $110m revenue / $750B volume --> 0.015% take rate, which roughly lines up with other large exchanges whose volume is primarily futures. (This doesn't say anything about expenses, mind you.)
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5) What does this imply for HT? Well, it has a circulating market cap of $2.2B and a fully diluted cap of $2.9B (excluding already burnt tokens). It's burning about $250m/year, so HT is trading at roughly 10-years burn at this rate. (How long will Huobi keep burning? IDK!)
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6) That's on the low end of multiples as far as exchange tokens go. Either it's a great buy (relative to others), or the market is pricing in future declines in relative volume. FWIW, here's Huobi's % of market volume for the past few years:
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8) That would imply a net profit of roughly $500m/year for Huobi. FWIW -- this is in the same ballpark as FTX
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Great analysis. It’s an interest debate as to what should be the metrics used to value crypto assets! Should it be fees as any new business is valued, profits or deflationary / burn rate models