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1) When it comes to COVID, there is no plan. There never was any.

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2) On the 1,000 person sample size: a) challenge trials fix this b) safety can be determined with ~1000 people; either you think COVID death >> 0.10% or the whole thing is stupid c) efficacy was strongly expected d) fine pay for 40k, it's a tiny fraction of the delay cost

3) On politics: Both parties get failing grades here. They both flip flopped (remember the immigration wars a year and a half ago?). We transitioned from incompetent to poorly-thought-out.

4) This was fairly predictable in many ways. The one thing that surprised me: I assumed people would give up on social distancing after a few months. I was wrong on that.

5) Even just the fact that we got the vaccine right on our first try is strong bayesian evidence that we didn't really need the trials and already knew it would probably work

6) It's not like the trials helped perfect it; it's still overdosed and needing two injections makes it way harder to get adoption and the rollout still sucked even though we had 9 months to prepare for it

6:40 AM · Jun 17, 2021Twitter Web App

7) Also to be clear I am not advocating any conspiracies here, just incompetence and lack foresight.

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8) and finally I don't want to really get into an argument about this one, but..... GAIN OF FUNCTION RESEARCH IS SCARY, YO. MAYBE WE SHOULD, LIKE, SPEND MORE TIME TRYING TO AVOID DOING THINGS THAT MIGHT KILL US. or at least like require an even higher level of security

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Also the entire notion that closing businesses early to combat covid is fundamentally flawed because now your just bottlenecking the hours which people can come and go forcing more people into the store within a smaller timeframe. If anything opening later would’ve helped.

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Staying open later*

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Yes on that last tweet Some people will say *THEY* planned it this way There is no plan, noone knows what the next step is and how to get out of this I understand the need to ratinonalise with narrative, but the truth is we were unprepared and are making it up as we go

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Well, I am dumbfounded how slow the rollout is in Europe, and the total lack of production capacity, especially seeing the cost of lockdowns. Saved money on the vaccine to outspend high multiples on lockdown side effects

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but didnt CDC and Biden say that you either wear a mask or get the vaccine?

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Not advocating any conspiracy theories here...BUT IT WAS TOTALLY GAIN OF FUNCTION RESEARCH THAT LED TO THE COVID PANDEMIC BRUH

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Speaking of incompetence in research labs, you should scope this podcast episode. Actually quite good. Made before covid. *I am NOT advocating this was a conspiracy nor am I stating it was intentionally made, I do not know* *

podcasts.apple.com

‎The End Of The World with Josh Clark: Biotechnology on Apple Podcasts

‎Show The End Of The World with Josh Clark, Ep Biotechnology - Nov 20, 2018

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mankind's pursuit of truth will be advanced by peeling back the negative connotation attached to 'conspiracy theory'. it artificially limits the scope of social discourse and gives a false bredth of what needs to be entertained as possible.

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