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8) If we had *all* locked down really hard for 2 months, COVID would have died out. Maybe that's unrealistic, though. Ok, what if we had ignored COVID? Then ~1% of the population would have lost ~8 years of life, and another ~30% would have lost ~1 week to sickness.

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9) That would have averaged to about 30 days per person, which is frankly a fair bit better than 1.5 years of lockdown + massive inflation + also we're not done yet. And how about the third obvious option--sorta lockdown, like we did, until we get the vaccine, and then open up?

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10) Well this one we could still kinda sorta maybe achieve! But we're not. Have you ever walked somewhere without a mask and when prompted said "I'm vaccinated'? Trust me, it doesn't work. They still make you wear the mask. Which is seriously fucked up.

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11) A while ago it was in vogue to say "it's evil to ignore COVID protocols, but once there are vaccines it's your right to be free". People said that to justify lockdowns. Now the vaccine is here. Where did those voices go?

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12) (And, before you point out not everyone is vaccinated: at least in the states, most people who are planning to get vaccinated have already: twitter.com/NateSilver538/)

Quote Tweet

Nate Silver

@NateSilver538

Apr 20, 2021

Somewhat worrying numbers on vaccine hesitancy from the new Axios/Ipsos poll. 56% of US adults say they've gotten at least one vaccine dose already—great! But there aren't many Americans left who *haven't* gotten vaccinated but plan to do so. Just 14% fall into that category.

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13) And it gets worse. You know what _another_ option would have been? Search "when was the COVID vaccine developed" and you'll find lots of articles bragging about how FAST and QUICK it was. Because it only took a year to get to the public. The vaccine was ready in a month.

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14) Seriously! The mRNA COVID vaccines were ready in February. February 2020, that is. The next nine months were clinical trials. Meanwhile those who weren't dying were locked in their rooms.

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15) Seriously, fuck whatever systems decided that was a good tradeoff. We could have had it out in March; a simple trial on 1,000 participants would have been plenty to prove it was safe and effective.

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Respectfully - incorrect Sam. Trials would have been inadequately statistically powered to detect complications, risks, side effects and level of efficacy. Even then, you would have had to infect everyone to demonstrate adequate different in control vs. Vaccine groups.