3) As I write this, I'm a day delayed traveling.
Why? Because my negative COVID test used my middle initial instead of my full middle name (it also had my passport number on it!)
I needed that test in order to:
fly
--> take another test
--> quarantine
--> 3 more tests
5) There are some internally consistent strategies for COVID.
For instance, "the whole world locks down super hard until it's gone", or "don't bother ever locking down", or "soft lockdown until there's a vaccine".
We didn't take any of those.
6) So, where _are_ we?
Well....
a) the world has been mostly shut down for 1.5 years (!)
b) the world still isn't really opening up (!!)
c) the vaccine exists
d) but only 5% of people are vaccinated (!!!)
e) the vaccine is massively overdosed and has nontrivial side effects
7) How do we know this is a bad outcome?
Because it's worse than the simple ones.
So far the world has locked down for 1.5 years, had 4m deaths, inflated monetary supply, and there's more to come.
8) If we had *all* locked down really hard for 2 months, COVID would have died out. Maybe that's unrealistic, though.
Ok, what if we had ignored COVID? Then ~1% of the population would have lost ~8 years of life, and another ~30% would have lost ~1 week to sickness.
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