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There's a discontinuity at 50%. If I say something is over 50%, people will be disappointed if it doesn't happen. So instead I'll say 15%, 35%, 45% [really 75%], 45% [really 85%], 60% [really 90%], "probably" [really 95%], 80% [really 100%]

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Caroline

@carolinecapital

May 27, 2021

"X has been updating towards Y, they'll probably keep doing that" vs "wait but if you're a Bayesian reasoner your updates shouldn't be autocorrelated" vs "yeah but even if they're not people expect them to be so you might wanna communicate as if they are for Legibility"

2:25 AM · May 30, 2021Twitter Web App

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Chances of BTC being 100k this year?

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You just gave your business partners your secret code :x

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So if you ever say 100% we'll know you've been hacked?

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this is why talking to computers is easier

◎n the Chopping Blockchain

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Odds of a SOL summer?

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GIF

read image description

ALT

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What’s the probability of ATH this year?

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Sam did you give up $SOL? Even trash chain like $ETC market cap is higher than $SOL and even copycat code copiers like $ZEN is overcoming $BTC down pressure but $SOL community saying #SolanaSummer and drop every $SOL ecosystem coins heavily. Was all these thing just business?

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69%. It's always optimum at 69%.

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You're basically a reverse weatherman (you've probably read this but if not 10% chance of rain really means ~3%, 20% chance of rain means ~8% etc). Viewers move away from any network that told them it "won't" rain if it rains

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uNiT BiAs1