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1) Ok, so something which I think is relevant: 1) Over the last week, ~$20B of longs have been liq'd 2) Right now, OI ~ $20B

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2) So that means.... I think (?) that means we have to be nearing the end of the futures liquidations. A lot of the remaining OI is very unlikely to be liq'd. But, there are other types of liquidations.

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3) Spot margin trading, for instance. FTX has ~$1b of OI on ftx.com/spot-margin/le, but that number has been more stable. Bitfinex has another ~$2B. So there could be *some* more liqs, but not a ton.

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4) Then, there are OTC loans. Are those getting called? I'd guess not: things are still up a lot this year, so probably most people are in the green still! And OTC borrow/lending tends to happen on longer timescales.

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5) Finally, the Huobi/OK rumors. I don't know what will happen exactly; but together they have ~$3B of relevant OI that might have to close, plus a bunch of possible selling of some specific coins, but probably not a ton in the majors.

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6) Now, this doesn't necessarily answer what will happen to prices: people can always sell and buy. But I think there isn't a ton of *forced* selling left; there could be a bit, but not as much as we've seen so far.

3:14 PM · May 23, 2021Twitter Web App

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7) One other factor: are chinese miners selling BTC/ETH? If so, how much have they sold, and how much do they have left? I legit have no idea.

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john peters | jpmd.eth | CFA

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mercy please

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Goblintown Greeter

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Okay so not another $1t selling over the next few days. Got it.

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So more red to come but we’ve definitely seen the worst of it?

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Sam your educational copes are the best kind of copes

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thanks sam i just put my mothers pension in a 100x long

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𝔽𝕚𝕥𝕫𝔾𝕚𝕓𝕓◎𝕟

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Very wise and responsible sir - did you tell her?

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@MyCryptoAssets

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It will be good for exchanges that offer leverage and allow short to disable those features during such times. We see that in some traditional markets. And I suspect large players like you should self regulate these things during such times

as well 🤷‍♂️

Winston Alexander

@_BitcoinCapital

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Thanks for the analysis! When will FTX allow US users?

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@_BitcoinCapital

ftx.us does!

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