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1) Ok, so how much CO2 does BTC actually create? How much of a worry is it?
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1) So on energy usage of BTC: The profile will change long-term. Right now the main driver is from block rewards. But as block rewards exponentially decay, those will become less relevant. Long-term, there are really two core drivers.
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4) So in equilibrium, it should be a bit above breakeven: if they're paid $X, they must have < $X of total expenses. So gas fees ~ 1.5 * mining costs. mining costs are 1/2 electricity 1/2 machines, which take electricity. So 3/4 * mining costs ~ $ spent on electricity.
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5) Something like 1/3 of mining rigs run on renewable electricity, so dirty electricity ~ 2/3 * $ spent on electricity. Electricity that miners use costs ~$0.05 / kWh. Each kWh of dirty electricity produces about 0.0004 tons of CO2.
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7) Ok, so putting it all together.... a) $x in gas b) * 2/3 --> in mining cost c) * 3/4 --> electricity d) * 2/3--> dirty electricity e) / $0.05 --> kWh f) * 0.0004 --> tons of CO2 g) * $1 --> cost to offset 2/3 * 3/4 * 2/3 / 0.05 * 0.0004 * 1 = 0.0026
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8) So this implies, with large error bars: If, for every $1 you spend on gas/blockchain fees, you donate $0.0026 to Cool Earth, you'll be roughly carbon neutral. -- does this seem right? If so, I think the environmental worries about BTC are pretty easily offset!
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I don't think this argument holds. You're not increasing mining revenues by the amount of fees you pay, because if you weren't paying those fees someone else would be buying that capacity, just at a slightly lower cost. Blocks are always going to be ~full.