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SBF
@SBF_FTX
1) So on energy usage of BTC: The profile will change long-term. Right now the main driver is from block rewards. But as block rewards exponentially decay, those will become less relevant. Long-term, there are really two core drivers.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
2) First, transaction fees. There's limited block space, and transactions will basically be bidding in auctions for those. That means that greater demand for BTC transfers --> higher tx fees --> breakeven point with more miners --> more energy used.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
3) So long-term energy used by BTC will scale with total demand for BTC transfers. The other thing it scales with is security. If anyone accumulates 51% hashrate they can attack the network. So for BTC to be secure, it has to be prohibitively expensive to get 51% hashrate.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
4) The payoff from attacking the network scales roughly linearly in BTC price (market cap and/or $ value of xfers per block). So I think this scaling is similar to the tx fee scaling.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
5) Which means that: a) most of the current energy usage will decay away as block rewards go down b) the rest of the energy usage will scale ~linearly with BTC price
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
6) All of this being said: a) right now crypto doesn't use a large % of global energy b) you have to look at the other side--how much do we waste powering middlemen in inefficient systems as is? c) even if BTC is value it might not be how most tx's happen
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