Broke: X will win
Woke: Here are some arguments for why it would be best if X won, but idk, we'll see, things are messy
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Bespoke: I cannot predict the future so I am taking a probability-weighted approach to allocating my resources to give me coverage and upside in all likely scenarios given the information available to me today
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ALL IN MAXIMIZES EV
(not investment advice)
I'm super jealous you got to interview/chat with Dwan. All-time poker hero of mine. Ugh.
I am all about the 0.5X leverage you offer. That is sweet cause I am still playing the game but there is a nice cushion to buy more if it goes low.
I don't think so if prices are data. If your parameter estimates are uncertain, no-trade theorem applies and if your parameter estimates are confident then you might have an edge. If you're confident in future industry size only, then a basket of assets might be EV max.
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