Conversation

Broke: X will win Woke: Here are some arguments for why it would be best if X won, but idk, we'll see, things are messy
36
549
Replying to and
Bespoke: I cannot predict the future so I am taking a probability-weighted approach to allocating my resources to give me coverage and upside in all likely scenarios given the information available to me today
18
362
Replying to and
I don't think so if prices are data. If your parameter estimates are uncertain, no-trade theorem applies and if your parameter estimates are confident then you might have an edge. If you're confident in future industry size only, then a basket of assets might be EV max.
2
3
Show replies
Show replies