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SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
8) It seems like lot of people were drawing parallels to 2008: an unpopular R president and a contested D primary during an international crisis. In both, the classic Democratic line was: "this is the worst president ever".
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
9) But in retrospect, I think that line in 2008 seems silly. And 2020 wasn't really that much like 2008. The main criticisms of Bush were, roughly, "he's unimpressive". So they wanted someone impressive and inspiring.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
10) In 2020, Biden seemed unimpressive to some D voters. And that almost seemed like a plus, because in the end "unimpressive" seemed like such an upgrade over the alternative. Biden was a boring candidate. In 2020, that's what a bit over 50% of the country wanted.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
11) Biden's been in office for a couple months now. Probably his biggest moment was purchasing a bunch of vaccines for COVID. Which, I mean, duh, of course you buy a lot of vaccines. Except prior to that, the US hadn't.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
12) Around 35 minutes in, they talk about how COVID impacted the campaign. And I think it hits an important point. Biden won in part because of COVID. But it wasn't inevitable that his stance would do better than Trump's.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
13) If, while keeping his high level priorities on COVID constant, Trump had shown a bit more compassion, and had acted a bit more consistently and operationally efficiently, he might have won. Conventional wisdom is that hard-on-COVID is the politically good play. Maybe it is.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
15) Around 40 minutes in they talk about police and protests. I think that part is worth listening to. And I wonder what Biden really thinks -- what is behind the public stance and statements.
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SBF
@SBF_FTX
16) Finally -- there's a bit about the post-election disputes. Which, I think, is a story missing some details. Like what would have happened if Pence had defected. Sometimes, history is oddly contingent on a single person.
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Christian Lundkvist
@ChrisLundkvist
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
There was never any scenario where Pence could have defected (i.e. helped Trump in any way). Pences role is purely ceremonial, it consists only of open envelopes and read electoral vote counts. Below is a thread explaining the electoral vote counting and the possible scenarios:
Quote Tweet
Christian Lundkvist
@ChrisLundkvist
THREAD regarding @Kleros_io court case about @Omen_eth US 2020 Election Prediction Market. I will explain how the Jan 6th Congress vote counting works and what to expect. I see much confusion around this and hopefully this thread can be helpful. Please RT to spread knowledge!
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