Conversation

SBF
@SBF_FTX
It's not obvious this is true. They make ~0.10% on their insto trades, and ~1-10% on their retail trades. From 2019 to 2020 instos grew 140% and retail grew 80% Now volume is up ~750%. How much of that growth is from retail vs instos? Makes a huge difference!
Quote Tweet
Larry Cermak 🫡
@lawmaster
One last crazy fact from the Coinbase S1 I will throw in there today. Coinbase revenue is 96% transactional. That means that % of revenue/volume is relatively stable. So if you know volume, you can deduce revenue relatively easily. What does this mean?
Show this thread
8
111
SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@lawmaster
ahh -- looks like their definition of "retail" doesn't match "prime vs mobile/coinbase.com" very well, which is what really determines fees
2
13
Larry Cermak 🫡
@lawmaster
Replying to
@SBF_FTX
and
@SBF_Alameda
Well you could assume that Q1 this year will have higher retail regardless of valuation. So the ratio should theoretically really be higher than last quarter, no? Last quarter the insti volume I assume was higher than it is now
1
2
SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@lawmaster
ah I had the opposite instinct -- volatility --> lots of MMs trading with each other but idk, I could be totally wrong there FTX's % retail is up in 2021, but that's more to do with FTX's growth trajectory than market conditions necessarily
2
11
SBF
@SBF_FTX
Replying to
@lawmaster
I'd guess it'd be close But either way, yeah, their valuation should be done on 2021 financials more than 2020 financials; I'm guessing $5B run-rate or so? IDK about profit -- really hard to tell. They had $800m of expenses in 2020 -- maybe like $1.5B in 2021? So $3.5b profit
1
7
Show replies