I can believe your last two numbers. I don't see how one can estimate the first two, without blindly trusting the exchanges. As for trading volume, it is a meaningless number, because of script robot trading and very likely wash trading.
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The internet had obvious value. Everybody saw that as soon as it became available (in the 1970s among a set of universities and tech companies, in 1993 for the general public), and its growth was limited only by the phyiscal infrastructure. >>
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>> Bitcoin has been around for 12 years, and adoption is shrinking instead of growing. And there is no infrastructure limitation....
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Back in 2014 there was a lot of reports about this and that business "accepting bitcoin". (It was in fact "accepting dollars from processors that exchanged bitcoins to dollars".) Remember the St. Petersburg (FL) "Bitcoin Bowl"? >>
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>> That all but ceased now. Even Blockstream now says that bitcoin is not for payments but just a "store of value".
(Which it is, in the same sense that a Roach Motel is a "store of roaches"...)
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I know the top exchanges quite well. I can vouch for enough of their trading that I'm fairly confident it's < 50% fake (and probably way less than that!).
That being said, exchanges not on ftx.com/volume-monitor that claim large volume are generally totally fake (except a few like which we're in the process of adding)
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Do you "know" them by analyzing their published order books, or from reliable insider information?
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Both --
1) have traded on them
2) have talked with employees
3) have run studies on their orderbooks
4) have collected users who together account for a significant % of their volume
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