Conversation

1) BAKKT is about to go public. There are a number of "interesting" things in their deck. sec.gov/Archives/edgar

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2) They're aiming for a $2b valuation. Where is that coming from? Well, their 30m+ active users and $500m revenue, of course!* (*2025 estimate)

4:28 PM · Jan 11, 2021Twitter Web App

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3) wait, 2025 projections? Isn't that far away? Sure, but when you invest, often you're investing in the future! And, of course, you can paint a pretty compelling road towards 30m users based on their, uh... Is that a 0?

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4) Man would I like to be the guy who typed '0' into the deck and then was like "yeah, totally, 30m, that's what 0 projects to!"

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5) Well, ok, sure, how about that $500m? That's pretty neat, huh? Well, that's projected based off of... uh, $55m this year, or wait sorry they don't give this year. But maybe it's projected based on the... projection for next year of $55m?

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6) Note that EBITDA, too -- somehow they're spending $260m/year right now on expenses, to go along with that $55m (projected!) revenue.

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7) So where's this $2b really coming from? I think the basic answer is: a) c'mon, man, this is ICE, kinda! b) people invested at a $800m valuation a year ago and BTC was a lot lower then! c) IPOs are seeing huge inflows right now

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8) p.s. NONE OF THIS MEANS BAKKT WILL GO DOWN AND NOT UP. IT MIGHT GO UP. SOMETIMES NUMBERS GO UP.

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Also regulatory moat!

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2B valuation is ridiculous

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