We now see that long-shot bets on Trump remaining President were tied to yesterday; to Trump staying via crazy turn of events, whether by legal means or not
Note: markets reflected this possibility too; not just illiquid Predict
Odds weren't necessarily irrational
Conversation
FWIW my guess is that fair was like 0.5% or so?
Idk, hard to ballpark exactly. I think it mostly came down to "would Pence unilaterally just declare Trump the winner and see what happened"
Agreed -- that number is more where I'd have put my estimate, rather than 5%.
And that seems the most plausible way it could have actually happened.
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