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@breakingthemark

long term *geometric* growth rate, not long term growth rate all-in maximizes long term growth rate

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and

Absolutely not. All long term growth rates are geometric. There is no other kind.

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uhhhh how are you defining growth rate? "Growth rates refer to the percentage change of a specific variable within a specific time period" from the first link: investopedia.com/terms/g/growth I'd interpret that as lim t --> inf EV[ W_{t+1}/W_t ]

investopedia.com

Growth Rates: Formula, How to Calculate, and Definition

Growth rates are the percent change of a variable over time. It can be applied to GDP, corporate revenue, or an investment portfolio. Here's how to calculate growth rates.

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and

That isn't a rate. it's the total growth. You have to scale it a period of time to make it a rate: lim t --> inf EV[ (W_{t+1}/W_t)^(1/t) ] That formula is the geometric return.

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why exactly are you raising it to the 1/t power? you're not taking W_{t+1}/W_0 there so I'm not sure why you should be raising to the 1/t, you're still just looking at growth in one time period!

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and

anyway, whatever, we're just fighting over how to define words now

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and

Were not there is an enormous difference between the two

breakingthemarket.com

The Arithmetic Return Doesn’t Exist

The Arithmetic Return Doesn't Exist. It's a dream that isn't real.Like waves crashing against an ocean cliff, the relentlessness of time simply overwhelms the arithmetic return.In th

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unlikely =!= irrelevant

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and

If you really believe this, though...... say you have 2 choices. (a) doubles every year (b) triples every year; but with probability 1/10^t each year causes 20^t torture to everyone on earth which would you choose?

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and

That's quite an example. Are you trying to put a value on torture? A.

SBF

@SBF_FTX

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@breakingthemark

But note that (b) has this property you've been talking about--it maximizes long-run geometric growth rate no matter how much of a hit you put for the unlikely torture; this is the symmetric scenario to the classic kelly one, where you ignore unlikely outcomes with large effects

5:29 PM · Dec 14, 2020Twitter Web App

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and

(or alternately you decide that if there is any chance at all that you end up having net done harm, all the analytical tools break down because they can't handle a negative number

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and

Depends on who’s growth rate I’m worried about, mine or societies. (A) maximizes society growth because the loss of production from even the threat of torture, won’t outweigh the puny gains of 3X vs 2X of my account.

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Matt Hollerbach

@breakingthemark

Dec 14, 2020

If everyone is society optimized for arithmetic return, or linear utility, then society would grow wonderfully at first. Society's geometric return would be high. Some people would win big, some would lose big, and the average would be good because many are involved.

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